मंदी मायने मुनाफा वसूली तो बुलरन मतलब बटोरलो,दिनदहाड़े डकैती
पलाश विश्वास
थोड़ा याद 2009 के उस चमत्कार को करें इस खबर के मध्य कि शेयर बाजार में आने वाले समय में हलचल बढ़ सकती है। भारतीय बाजार महंगा है और कुछ वैश्विक घटनाक्रमों के चलते विदेशी निवेशक यहां प्रॉफिट बुकिंग कर सकते हैं यानी कुछ मुनाफा निकाल सकते हैं। यूपीए की जीत के जश्न में चंद मिनटों में शयर बाजार में दो हजार अंकों की उछाल कर दी साढ़ों ने।तो अब नमोसुनामी बुलरन के अटूट सिलसिले के बावजूद वह चमत्का दोहरा नहीं पाया तो गम न करे क्योकि इतिहास की पुनरावृत्तियां चमत्कार नहीं हैं। जिस दुश्चक्री तिलिस्म में फंसे हैं वह गैस चैंबर है दरअसल और यहां इसी हिमालय,किसी महाअरण्य और संजीवनी सुधामय जलस्रोत के आक्सीजन भंडार से कोई सप्लाई होने की संभावना नहीं है।
The Sensex recorded its fastest ever 2,000 points surge in history, taking not more than a few minutes to jump from 12,173.42 to 14,284.21, as the bulls stormed the bourses following the Congress-led UPA front getting a strong mandate in the general elections 2009.
यह जनादेश का धमाल नहीं था।बिक्रीयोग्य सार्वजनिक उपक्रमों के शेयर अचानक तेज हो गये।ज्यादा मुनाफा विनिवेस की पात्रता है।इसी पात्रता की दिशा में यह एक भारी कदम रहा है।ताजा सांढ़ धमाल में भी नवरत्न कपनियों की पूजा अर्चना जारी है कसाईबाड़े में।
सोशल मीडिया में मेरी प्रोफाइल तस्वीर के साथ एक वीडियो किसी भी महत्वपूर्ण मुद्दा पोस्ट करने के बाद बार बार बार पोस्ट किया जा रहा है। यह स्पैम है। ऐसा कोई वीडियो हमारा है भी नहीं।हम पारिवारिक क्षणों को शेयर करने के लिए सोशल मीडिया का उपयोग नहीं करते।यू ट्यूब पर मेरे जो वीडियो है वे मुद्दों पर भाषण और साक्षात्कार के है।जिसमें हमारे परिजन हैं ही नहीं।फेसबुक ने हाल में प्रोफाइल वीडियो जारी जरुर किया है,लेकिन हमें हमारे किसी प्रोफाइल वीडियो की जानकारी नहीं है। मित्रों को इस वीडियो स्पैम की चेतावनी के साथ यह रोजनामचा आज का।
डालर से नत्थी मुक्तबाजारी भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था मोदी सुनामी,विकास कामसूत्र,विनिवेश,प्रत्यक्ष विदेशी निवेश,निर्माण विनिर्माण,विनियंत्रण और विनियमन के साथ अबाध विदेशी पूंजी के अनंत प्रवाह के लिए जारी आर्थिक सुधारों के दूसरे पद्मप्रलयी चरण और सांढ़ों की बेमिसाल उछलकूद और अर्थशास्त्रियों की मीडिया जुगाली और विश्वव्यवस्था की जायनी रेटिंग और इशारों से सुधरने वाला नहीं है।
प्रणवमुखर्जी के हालिया 67 फीसद की बेरोजगारी वाले बयान से साफ जाहिर है कि संख्याएं,आंकड़े,सूचनाओं और विश्लेषण किस हद तक भ्रामक हैं।
दरअसल विकास दर कोई अर्थव्यवस्था और भारतीय जनगण की विकास वृद्धि को अभिव्यक्त नहीं करती।
इस सीधे सीधे मुनाफावसूली दर कहें तो बात ज्यादा समझ में आ सकती है।
इसके साथ यह भी समझ लें कि मंदी कोई अर्थव्यवस्था का संकट नहीं है,जैसा कि आम तौर पर बतााया जाता है और न यह जनगण का संकट है।
मंदी दरअसल मुनाफावसूली का पुख्ता इंतजाम है।
यूपीए की पहली और दूसरी सरकारों ने इस मंदी की आड़ में जनसंहारी सुधारों का बवंडर ही रचा है और देशी विदेशी लंपट आवारा पूंजी के हित साधने का स्थाई बंदोबस्त किया है।
अनिममित अनियंत्रित विदेशी निवेशकों की मुनाफावसूली की वजह से कृत्तिम संकट खड़ा होता है,जो दरअसलसंकट है ही नहीं।जबकि बुलरन सरासर दिनदहाड़े डकैती है।
विदेशी निवेशक सरकारी पहल पर बाजार में पैसा झोंकते हैं और आम लोग इस वसंत बहार में अपनी जेबें भारी करने के फिराक में जमा पूंजी बाजार के हवाले कर देते हैं।
बाजार में विदेशी निवेशकों की दिलचस्पी भी इसलिए औचक बढ़ गयी है क्योंकि जमा पूंजी ही नहीं,अब भविष्यनिधि,पेंशन और ग्रेच्युटी को भी सरकार बाजार में झोंक रही है।
इसका नतीजा बीमा प्रीमियम की गुमशुदगी की निजी अभिज्ञता से समझ लें।
विदेशी निवेशक बाजार में रुक रुक कर सांढ़ों का कार्निावाल इसलिए शुरु करती है कि छोटी और मंझोली निवेशक मछलियों के चारा यही है।
वे चारा निगल लें तो फिर मुनाफावसूली शुरु।
डालर से नत्थी मुक्तबाजारी अर्थव्यवस्था भारतीयउत्पादन प्रणाली से किसी तरह जुड़ी नहीं है।भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक औद्योगिक कृषि मैनुफैक्चरिंग विकास दरों और मुद्रास्फीति मूल्यवृद्धि के मद्देनजर मौद्रिक कवायद के तहत तो ब्याज दरों में फेरबदल करती है वह न राष्ट्रहित में है और न जनहित में।सिरे से यह कारोबार मुनाफी वसूली की चांदमारी है।
आर्थिक सुधार जो हो रहे हैं वह एकध्रूवीय विश्वव्यवस्था के हितों के मुताबिक हैं जो न राष्ट्रहित हैं और न जनहित।
भारत सरकार अपनी वित्तीय नीतियों पर चलती नहीं है और न उसकी इस मुक्तबाजारी अर्थव्यवस्था में कोई वित्तीय नीति है।
विश्व बैंक,अंतरराष्ट्रीय मुद्राकोष.यूरोपीय समुदाय ,विश्व व्यापार संगठन,रेटिंग एजंसियां और भारत की देशी और बहुराष्ट्रीय कंपनियां मौद्रिक और वित्तीय नीति तय करती हैं।
मसलन सब्सिडी खत्म करने पर वैश्विक आर्थिक संगठनों का सबसे ज्यादा जोर है। लेकिन स्वतंत्र संप्रभू लोकगणराज्य भारत की सरकार और भारत की संसद के कार्यक्षेत्र में यह मामला नहीं है ,विश्व व्यापार संगठन को भारत में सब्सिडी का भविष्यतय करना है और खाद्य सुरक्षा का क्या होगा,इसका फैसला बाराक हुसैन ओबामा करेंगे।
भारतीय खुदरा कारोबार की दश दिशा भी ओबामा की मेहरबानी।
जैसे कि विदेशनीति और राजनय तेलअबीब और वाशिंगटन से तय होते हैं।
जैसे कि प्रतिरक्षा और आंतरिक सुरक्षा अमेरिका,ब्रिटेन और इजराइल के नेतृत्व में पारमाणविक गठजोड़ के हवाले है,जिसमें अपने ही देश की जनता के खिलाफ युद्धरत सैन्य राष्ट्र भारत शामिल है।
नेपाल से लौटकर नमो महाराज ओबामा महाप्रभू को नेपाल में हिंदू राष्ट्र और राजतंत्र की बहाली मुहिम की प्रगति की जो रपट सौंपें गो,सो सौपेंगे,उन्हें विनिवेश विदेशी प्रत्यक्षनिवेश,सब्सिडी वगैरह वगैरह विशुद्ध भारतीय अऱ्थव्यवस्था और उत्रापदन प्रणाली के मुद्दों और दूसरे चरण के आर्थिक सुधारों के मामले में व्हाइट हाउस से दिशा निर्देस लेने हैं।
हालात बेहद गंभीर हैं।संसदीय सौदेबाजी के तहत विपक्ष का नेता अभी तय नहीं हो पाया है और कांग्रेस का जनहित यही है तो क्षत्रपों और वामदलों के जनहित भी अलग अलग हैं।इसलिए इस सोमवार को राज्यसभा में बीमा बिल पेश हो नहीं रहा है।यह मामला शीत सत्र तक टल सकता है जो अमेरिकी हितों का सरासर उल्लंघन है।
मल्टी ब्रांड का खामियाजा तो सिंगल ब्रांड और ईकामर्स से पूरा कर दिया गया है।
प्रतिरक्षा में शत प्रतिशत एफडीआई का रास्ता भी खुल गया है तो एसबीआई और एलआईसी कसाईबाड़े में कैद हैं।
फिर भी बीमा और सब्सिडी मामले में अमेरिकी खूब नाराज हुआ जाये रे।
कारपरेट लाबिइंग में भारत में बुरी तरह फेल अमेरिकी विदेश मंत्री कैरी साहेब बेहद नाराज होकर चले गये हैं।मोदी महाराज को सारे अमेरिकी सवालों का जवाब पेश करना है।
इससे यह भी साबित हुआ कि संसद में केसरिया कारपोरेट बहुमत उतना भी नहीं है,जितना कि हल्ला बहुत है।विपक्ष के हित सधे तो कायदा कानून बदलने बिगाड़ने में केसरिया ब्रिगेड को नाकों चने चबाने पड़ सकते हैं।जैसा कि बीमा बिल के मामले में हो रहा है।
मजे की बात है कि तेईस सालों के आर्थिक सुधार जमाने में लोकसभा में बहुमत पाने वाली पार्टी की यह पहली सरकार है।
लेकिन जैसे कि हम आप जानते हैं कि सुधार अश्वमेध यज्ञ के पुरोहित रंगबिरंगे भेष में तमाम पार्टियों,विचारधाराओं और अस्मिताओं के ही हाड़ मांस के लोग हैं जो संजोग से ज्यादातर या अरबपति हैं या फिर सत्ता जमात के पंचायत प्रधानों की मौजूदा औकात यानी कि कमसकम करोड़पति हैं,तो कामर्शियल ब्रेक के बाद फिर वही कामेडी विद कपिल है या फिर जोधा अकबर या कौन बनेगा करोड़पति।
विकास कामसूत्र का अनंत पाठ रुकने वाला नहीं है।
अब भूमि अधिग्रहण कानून में जरुरी तब्दीली के साथ गुजराती पीपीपी माडल के साथ पूंजी के लिए सस्ती दरों पर जमीन दिलाने का कार्य़भार है और देशव्यापी बेदखली अभियान की तैयारियों की नई खेप का इंतजमा भी सरदर्द सबब है।
नई भूमि अधिग्रहण नीति के तहत सरकारी और सरकारी उपक्रमों की गैर कृषि भूमि की अभूतपूर्व बंदरबांट होनी है।खास जमीन का भी पूंजी में तब्दील कर दने की पूरी तैयारी है।
भारतीय स्टेट बैंक,ओएनजीसी,सेल,कोलइंडिया,पंजाब नेशनल बैंक और दूसरे बैंक के कर्मचारी सातवें वेतन आयोग के वेनमान के लिए प्रतीक्षा कर ही सकते हैं क्योंकि फिलहाल हिस्सेदारी बेचने की रणनीति है।एकमुशत् हलाल करने के बजाय जोर का झटका धीरे से लगे,ऐसा चाकचौबंद इंतजाम है।
इस सिलसिले में भारत सरकार के विनिवेश संबंधी तमाम आयोगों कमिटियों की रपटें आज फिर नये सिरे से मेरे ब्लागों में लगायी जा रही हैं,जिन्हें आंख कान की सेहत की नियामत अब भी मिली हुई हैं,वे देख लें।
विदेशी प्रत्यक्ष निवेश का मामला भी अब भारत सरकार का कार्यक्षेत्र नहीं है,इसके नार्म अब आंतर्जातिक है और इसका मतलब बूझकर बताइयेगा।
भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक की मौद्रिक नीति से पहले ब्याज दर के लिहाज से संवेदनशील शेयरों में तेजी के चलते घरेलू शेयर बाजार सोमवार को लगभग दो सप्ताह के उच्चतम स्तर तक चढ़ गए जहां सेंसेक्स 242 अंक तथा निफ्टी 81 अंक मजबूत हुआ। जबकि ईटी के मुताबिक शेयर बाजार में आने वाले समय में हलचल बढ़ सकती है। भारतीय बाजार महंगा है और कुछ वैश्विक घटनाक्रमों के चलते विदेशी निवेशक यहां प्रॉफिट बुकिंग कर सकते हैं यानी कुछ मुनाफा निकाल सकते हैं। इससे सेंसेक्स और निफ्टी मौजूदा लेवल से 5-7 पर्सेंट तक नीचे आ सकते हैं। इकनॉमिक टाइम्स ने फंड मैनेजरों और ब्रोकरों का सर्वे किया है, जिसमें यह दावा किया गया है। हालांकि उनका यह भी कहना है कि मार्केट की गिरावट का फायदा उठाकर ब्लू चिप शेयर खरीदने चाहिए। वे आईसीआईसीआई बैंक, एलएंडटी, मारुति सुजुकी और रिलायंस इंडस्ट्रीज के शेयर खरीदने की सलाह दे रहे हैं। उनका कहना है कि ये ब्लू चिप स्टॉक्स साल के बचे हुए समय में सबसे ज्यादा रिटर्न दे सकते हैं।
हमने 21 लोगों की राय ली। इनमें से 44 पर्सेंट ने कहा है कि निफ्टी 7,050-7,220 तक फिसल सकता है। वहीं, अगर कमजोरी बनी रहती है तो सेंसेक्स कुछ हफ्तों में 24,200 तक जा सकता है। शुक्रवार को निफ्टी 7,602.60 और सेंसेक्स 25,480.84 पर रहा था। दोनों इंडेक्स पहले ही 25 जुलाई के ऑल टाइम पीक से करीब 3 पर्सेंट नीचे आ चुके हैं। मोतीलाल ओसवाल फाइनेंशियल सर्विसेज के चेयरमैन और एमडी मोतीलाल ओसवाल ने कहा, 'पिछले कुछ महीने की जोरदार तेजी के बाद मार्केट में गिरावट आनी चाहिए थी। हालिया करेक्शन के बाद भारतीय बाजार ग्लोबल मार्केट की तरह व्यवहार कर रहा है।'
अमेरिका में बेरोजगारी लगातार कम हो रही है। इससे यह डर बना है कि वहां का फेडरल रिजर्व (भारत के आरबीआई जैसी संस्था) ब्याज दरों में जल्द बढ़ोतरी कर सकता है। इससे डॉलर मजबूत होगा। मजबूत डॉलर का असर यह होगा कि विदेशी निवेशक भारत सहित इमर्जिंग देशों से पैसा निकालकर अमेरिकी एसेट्स में लगाएंगे। पिछले कुछ साल में भारतीय शेयर बाजार में काफी विदेशी पैसा आया है। हालांकि भारतीय इकनॉमी भी वापसी कर रही है। इसकी पुष्टि मैक्रो-इकनॉमिक और इंडस्ट्रियल डेटा से होती है। पिछले कुछ हफ्तों में मॉनसून भी अच्छा रहा है।
इस साल सेंसेक्स 21 पर्सेंट चढ़ा है। इसमें फॉरेन इंस्टीट्यूशनल इनवेस्टर्स के 71,409 करोड़ रुपये का अहम रोल रहा। 2013 के बाद से एफआईआई भारतीय बाजार में 1.13 लाख करोड़ रुपये लगा चुके हैं। इसी वजह से यहां का मार्केट महंगा हो गया है। आईसीआईसीआई प्रूडेंशियल एसेट मैनेजमेंट के चीफ इनवेस्टमेंट ऑफिसर एस नरेन ने बताया, 'नियर टर्म के लिहाज से बाजार महंगा लगता है। ज्यादातर सेक्टर्स अपने लॉन्ग टर्म एवरेज वैल्यूएशन के करीब ट्रेड कर रहे हैं।' एमएससीआई इंडिया इंडेक्स 16.3 के पी/ई पर है। दूसरे इमर्जिंग मार्केट्स की तुलना में इसका वैल्यूएशन 5 साल में सबसे ज्यादा हो गया है। इस पर टाटा एसेट मैनेजमेंट के चीफ इनवेस्टमेंट ऑफिसर ऋतेश जैन ने बताया, 'नई सरकार के आने के बाद सेंटीमेंट मजबूत हुआ है, लेकिन वैल्यूएशन को लेकर चिंता भी बढ़ी है। इसलिए बाजार में गिरावट आना जरूरी है।'
फंड मैनेजरों और ब्रोकरों का कहना है कि 5-7 पर्सेंट की गिरावट के बाद मजूबत कंपनियों के शेयर खरीदे जासकते हैं। सर्वे में 35 पर्सेंट ने कहा कि सेंसेक्स साल के अंत तक 27,000-28,000 तक पहुंच जाएगा। वहीं 40पर्सेंट का कहना है कि सेंसेक्स का लेवल तब तक 28,000-30,000 हो जाएगा। सर्वे के मुताबिक , इनवेस्टर्सका फोकस प्राइवेट बैंकों , ऑटो और आईटी कंपनियों की ओर शिफ्ट हो सकत ा है।
पहले इसे पढ़ेंः
Sensex, Nifty may fall 3-7% on profit-taking, predicts ET survey of market players
Indian stock markets may need to brace for more turbulence over the next few months as rich valuations and global uncertainties could prompt investors -mainly foreign institutions -to lock in some profits. The Sensex and Nifty may fall about 3-7% from current levels during the period, said a majority of participants in an ET poll of fund managers and brokers, but a market decline could be a good opportunity to buy some of the blue chips. ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki and Reliance Industries could be the best performers for the rest of 2014.
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Publications - Archives
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Sensex records its fastest ever 2000 points surge
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The Sensex recorded its fastest ever 2,000 points surge in history, taking not more than a few minutes to jump from 12,173.42 to 14,284.21, as the bulls stormed the bourses following the Congress-led UPA front getting a strong mandate in the general elections 2009.
On expectations the new government would speed up reforms and give the necessary thrust to boost the sagging economy, the bulls shrugged off weak global markets and thronged the major Indian bourses today. So strong was their presence that the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit the upper circuit in a flash. While the Sensex shot up by over 10%, the Nifty flared up by more than 15%, forcing the market authorities to halt trading for a couple of hours.
And the trend was not any different when trading resumed at 11.55 a.m., The Sensex, which had moved up by 1305.97 points or 10.73% to 13,479.39 when trade was halted for the first time this morning, shot up to 14,284.21 immediately on resumption of trade a little before noon, recording an incredible gain of 2110.79 points or 17.34% for the day. The Nifty, which had flared up to 4271.40 at the bell, galloped to 4384.30 and was up 17.74% or 651.50 points for the session.
As the Nifty hit the 20% upper circuit barely a minute after trading resumed at 11.55 a.m., trading on both NSE and BSE was halted for the day.
For Sensex, this is the first close past 14,000 since 21st September 2008. The Sensex had closed at 14,042.32 on that day. The Nifty recorded its best close since September 10, 2008.
With no Left parties in the coalition and the Congress combine winning the polls by a handsome margin, it is now felt that reforms will get a much needed thrust and that the new government will go all out to provide the required stimulus to revive the sagging economy.
Stocks across the board hit impressive highs this morning with those from the realty, banking, capital goods, power, metal and oil sectors attracting buying at sharply higher levels.
All the sectoral indices moved up sharply. BSE FMCG, which moved up by a sharp 7.21% gained the least today. The Healthcare barometer surged 8.06%.
The Realty index spurted 23.45%. The Capital Goods barometer shot up by nearly 22%. The Bankex, Oil & Gas and Power jumped 19.18%, 19.11% and 18.33% respectively. BSE PSU and Metal surged by over 16%. BSE Teck, CD, IT and Auto climbed up 11.2% - 14%.
BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rose 11.75% and 9.05% respectively. Among 846 stocks seen in action during the short duration of trade today, 833 stocks advanced and 11 stocks declined. A couple of stocks ended flat.
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
Govt Plans Recast of Land-use Policy to Check Displacement
YOGIMA SETH SHARMA
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NEW DELHI
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ON RIGHT TRACK Wasteland will be offered for development to deal with land acquisition woes
The Narendra Modi government has set its eye on a recast of the country's land-use policy to make it more scientific and minimise displacement, much along the lines of the Gujarat model that enabled rapid industrialisation, by offering wasteland for development.
There has been much criticism of the Land Acquisition Act of 2013, which the government and private players say will make land purchases almost impossible because it mandates high compensation and the resettlement and rehabilitation of affected families.
The department of land resources, under the ministry of rural development, will revisit the land-use policy in the light of Gujarat's scientific model of land use for industrialisation to enforce it at the all-India level, a senior government official told ET.
“Such a plan will help limit land acquisition and minimise displacement. It will help in creative integration of state plans on the one hand and the na tional perspective of development plan on the other,“ the official said, adding that offi cials will soon visit the western state to study its model.
The move will help industrialists pick up plots within a short span of time at a relatively low cost with barely any obligation of any obligation of rehabilitation because these would be tracts of wasteland. Besides, it will ensure that industries come up in such regions, which have been neglected, and boost their local economy .
Today, most new factories are coming up in developed areas, where land acquisition is not only expensive but also leads to extensive delays and displaces a large number of families. The changeover would require the government to update the wasteland atlas of the country with detailed descriptions so that it can be used by public and private players scouting for hassle-free land. The wasteland data of India was last updated in 2011.
The idea is to verify the updated wasteland atlas with states, which will prepare a comprehensive survey and documentation of the area, its use, titles and all related information to determine its potential.
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
MAY RELIST IF AFTER TALKS WITH OPPN - No Insurance Bill For Now
NEW DELHI
OUR POLITICAL BUREAU
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Govt to continue efforts to win over Cong
The government has removed the Insurance Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2013, which seeks to increase FDI cap in the sector from 26% to 49%, from the Rajya Sabha's business list for Monday , after its daylong effort to buy peace with the Opposition failed.
According to sources, after Congress and other major opposition parties who enjoy numerical advantage in the Upper House refused to budge from their demand to send the bill to a select committee, parliamentary affairs minister M Venkaih Naidu advised the Rajya Sabha Secretariat to drop the bill from Monday's business for the House.
“The bill is as good as dropped for now,“ an official source confirmed. Naidu, however, told the media that the course of the bill would be decided after the government holds a meeting with floor leaders on Monday morning.
“The Narendra Modi government believes in building a consensus on issues and taking all parties along. Hence it will not bring the insurance bill till there is broad agreement among parties,“ a Union minister told ET.
If BJP manages to convince Congress, it may bring the bill on August 6, sources said.
It is reliably learnt the parliamentary affairs minister contacted Congress leaders Ghulam Nabi Azad and Anand Sharma, CPM's Sitaram Yechury and leaders of other opposition parties such as SP , BJD and Trinamool Congress, seeking support for the bill.
Though the government managed to win over AIADMK and BJD, other opposition parties refused to budge., When contacted by ET, Congress deputy Rajya Sabha leader Anand Sharma said, “since the bill (insurance), introduced by the government contains many substantial changes, Congress and other Opposition parties think it should be referred to the select committee. What is the hurry?“ Earlier in the day, the government appeared confident of thwarting the opposition's attempt to send the bill to a select committee. Law minister Ravi Shankar Prasad even said, “we will pass all tests,“ when asked about Opposition roadblocks.
BJD, which has seven members in the RS, even announced that it would support the government on the issue. AIADMK, which has 11 MPs, however, had said it was yet to make up its mind.“We will decide our stand tomorrow morning,“ V Maitreyan, senior party MP in the RS told ET.
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
International Norms May be Adopted to Rejig FDI Policy
DEEPSHIKHA SIKARWAR
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NEW DELHI
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Policy may be linked with industrial codes so that investors don't have to deal with press notes
The government is proposing a major overhaul of its for eigndirect investment (FDI) policy as part of the Narendra Modi-led administration's plan to woo overseas investors and improve ease of doing business in India, which ranks at a lowly 134 out of 189 global economies in this respect, according to the World Bank.
The government is looking to adopt the international practice of linking policy with industrial codes to ensure foreign investors won't have to wade through complicated press notes or circulars to decipher the policy for a sector.
“Discussions are on. There is merit in seeding the industrial codes with the FDI policy,“ said a government official aware of the deliberations.
The move is in line with the BJP's election manifesto pledge to ensure “that a conducive, en abling environment is created making `doing business' in India easy. We will focus on cutting the red tape, simplifying the procedures and removing the bottlenecks.“
The FDI policy currently lays out a broad sectoral framework, which at times leads to confusion.
For example, items such as implants or similar medical equipment get erroneously classified as pharmaceutical products due to the absence of specific guidelines covering them.
With the government imposing restrictions on overseas investment in the pharmaceutical sector -previously automatic -the challenge has only increased for foreign investors.
Implants, sutures, syringes are more accurately classified as industrial activities linked to the medical and healthcare sectors but cannot be clubbed with the pharmaceutical sector, which is to do with making medicines.
The revamp exercise will in volve seeding the National Industrial Classification (NIC) 2008 system with the relevant FDI policy, thus accurately capturing an economic activity. The department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP) had in June announced the switch to NIC 2008, replacing NIC 1987, after the issue was taken up by the finance ministry.
“A drill-down FDI policy to each line item of the NIC code will bring about clarity on policy implications, especially in sectors with caps and conditions,“ said Akash Gupt, executive director, PwC.
The integration of codes and FDI policy had figured at a meeting between officials of the department of economic affairs and DIPP, with the latter deciding to introduce the framework.
The adoption of the framework will make it easier for foreign and domestic investors to understand policy regarding any economic activity and also help in hastening approvals.
The industrial classification is followed internationally and used to capture economic activity in all enlisted areas.
The classification has been worked out by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation in line with globally accepted practices.
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
Modi to Take up WTO Issues with Obama
DILASHA SETH
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NEW DELHI
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India to convince the US to get public procurement matter on negotiating table
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to the US could be significant as India hopes to take trade talks forward when the World Trade Organization (WTO) meets in September after the summer break, signalling its commitment to the multilateral trading system.
India will try to engage with other countries during the August break to get stronger backing for its proposal of finding a permanent solution to the issue of public stockholding for food security by December 31.
“We are fully committed to the Bali accord and will resume talks in September. Prime Minister will also take up the matter with US President Barack Obama during his visit next month. It is very important to convince the US to get the public procurement matter on the negotiating table,“ a government official said.
Trade talks collapsed in Geneva last week after India insisted that the entire Bali package, including the food security issue important to developing and poor countries, should be sealed at one go.
A protocol on trade facilitation -measures to reform customs procedures and cut red tape to speed up global trade -was to have been signed by July 31, as agreed in Bali.
Apprehensive that the developed world would lose interest in the issue of food security once the trade facilitation agreement was signed, India didn't sign the deal, saying the entire Bali package could be delivered by December 31.
WTO's agreement on agriculture limits farm support at 10% of the value of production based on 198688 international prices. India wants the subsidy to be calculated on a more recent base year or indexed to inflation.
US Secretary of State John Kerry, who visited India last week, is understood to have told Modi that failure to sign the agreement “sent a confusing signal and undermined the very image the new government was trying to send about India.“ Modi told Kerry he was more concerned about the small Indian farmer, even though he believed the trade facilitation agreement was good for India.
It may be a challenge to convince all 160 members to get back to the negotiation table in September.
“PM's visit will be crucial from many perspectives, including taking forward the Bali deal and also pushing WTO to the successful resolution of outstanding issues of the Doha round,“ said Abhijit Das, a trade policy expert with the Centre for WTO Studies at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade. He said it will be important for India to get on board other countries that have similar problems related to food security. “A broad-based coalition would need to be formed to take the food security agenda forward,“ he said. While it will be the responsibility of the entire WTO membership to take forward the Bali deal, India's role will be crucial in trying to broaden the base of countries, added Das. India was left isolated in Geneva, with even BRIC countries not supporting its bid for a permanent solution on food security simultaneously with the trade facilitation agreement. Only Bolivia, Venezuela and Cuba backed India, while China remained silent all through and Brazil and Russia fought for trade facilitation. New Delhi did not get support from all 46 members of the G-33 grouping.
Indian commerce department officials maintain they are prepared to engage from Day 1 of September even though WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo had warned of `significant consequences' if no deal was reached on trade facilitation. “The fact that India has gone back on an agreement and there is great annoyance and disappointment among major countries, it may not be easy to get countries together on India's demands,“ said Anwarul Hoda, a former deputy director general of the WTO who is now Chair Professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations.
He said finding a final solution would mean changing the WTO agreement and procedures, which requires parliamentary approval in many countries.
It may not be easy to get a solution the way India wants, he said. In its last proposal on July 31, India wanted a peace clause, which provides interim protection against actionable subsidies, to exist until a permanent solution was found, as against the four years interpreted by most member countries.
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
Kerry Returns Home Unhappy
DIPANJAN ROY CHAUDHURY
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NEW DELHI
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Strong talk against snooping, US immigration bill leaves him dejected
The fifth edition of the India-US Strategic Dialogue was not a cheerful occasion for US Secretary of State John Kerry, the highest-ranking leader to visit India since Narendra Modi came to power. Kerry wanted the dialogue to be the right springboard for Modi's trip to Washington in September but returned dissatisfied over India's strong reservations against NSA snooping, the US immigration bill and a sense that economic reforms may not be introduced at a faster pace.
Ker ry and his collea gue C o m m e rc e S e c re t a r y Pe n ny Pritzker not only failed to convince the Modi government to lift its veto against the WTO deal, they were troubled when India strongly raised the US immigration bill and cases of snooping by the NSA against a friendly country like India during the course of the diaS logue last Thursday , official sources l indicated to ET. The BJP came e down hard on the snooping issue as g it was at the receiving end in 2010, sources pointed out.
Officials admitted in private that unlike the UPA-2 government, which did not lodge a strong protest, the current gover nment was quite clear about its quite clear about its objections in this matter.
That Kerry was not satisfied with India's assertion was clear from his reply during the joint presser with Minister for Exter nal Affairs Sushma Swaraj, when he said intelligence matters are left best to the intelligence communities.
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
Cap Foreign Ownership in Telcos at 74%: Home Min
KALYAN PARBAT
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KOLKATA
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Move could hurt plans of Telenor & Sistema, which want to own 100% in local arms
The home ministry has called for reimposition of the 74% foreign own ership cap in telecom companies on “security grounds“, a move that could pose challenges for Norway's Telenor Group and Russia's Sistema JSFC, which have both shown an interest in fully owning their local units after the previous government allowed 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) last year.
The ministry has sought a review of telecom FDI norms in the backdrop of last year's revelations by former US National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden regarding surveillance programmes that snooped on email and personal data.
FDI norms must be “viewed afresh due to revelations of the Prism (US) and Tempora (UK) programmes“, according to a home ministry note to the Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion (DIPP), seen by ET. The call for a return to 74% foreign ownership is on the grounds that “telecom is a very sensitive sector“ and “higher ownership would exacerbate the problem“ as security issues relating to “remote access and encryption remain, and are of increasing concern“.
If the government heeds the home ministry's warning, Telenor and Sistema's push towards full ownership in their local units could face roadblocks.
The Nordic mobile operator recently sought permission from the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) to raise ownership in its Indian arm, Uninor, to 100% while Sistema had sought government approval to take its stake beyond the 74% it currently owns in Sistema Shyam Teleservices.
A return to the 74% FDI cap regime could also potentially complicate matters for UK's Vodafone, which took full control of its local subsidiary earlier this year by raising its stake from 64% to 100% after the government allowed full foreign ownership in telcos last year.
To be sure, the Narendra Modi government has emphasised that it has no intention of making changes to policies that would have retrospective effect as these were highly disruptive to business, although finance minister Arun Jaitley also said such measures would remain a government prerogative.
Vodafone India said it “does not wish to comment“, while Telenor Group said “it had applied for 100% ownership in Uninor to strengthen its commitment further and continue serving the mass market customer in India, having won licences to operate in seven circles for 20 years“.
A Sistema Shyam spokesman said “since the policy decision by the government specific to increasing FDI cap beyond 74% in telcos is already out, there is nothing more to comment“.
The home ministry has also suggested inclusion of a “national security exception clause“ for “investments of concern“ (IOC) in an amended telecom FDI policy.
Such “IOC would be flagged when there are intelligence inputs to suggest a threat to national security,“ it suggested, adding that this “would also strengthen India's stand in international disputes arising out of FDI rejections, which often led to expensive arbitration as in the bilateral investment promotion agreements or BIPA-related cases“.
The matter is likely to come up in Parliament shortly and the telecom department (DoT) is learnt to be preparing a reply to allay the home ministry's security-linked concerns.
The controversy over the US government agency NSA and the UK Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) pertaining to their tracking and eavesdropping on voice and data traffic around the world erupted last year following the widely reported Snowden leaks.
Snowden revealed the existence of a secret US internet surveillance program, codenamed Prism, which reportedly allowed authorities to access private email and personal data. Subsequent leaks by him revealed that UK's GCHQ tapped global telephone and internet traffic on a large scale in a programme codenamed Tempora.
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
After Dream Run, Bulls Face Reality Check on Dalal Street
MUMBAI
OUR BUREAU
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Sensex, Nifty may fall 3-7% on profit-taking, predicts ET survey of market players
Indian stock markets may need to brace for more turbulence over the next few months as rich valuations and global uncertainties could prompt investors -mainly foreign institutions -to lock in some profits. The Sensex and Nifty may fall about 3-7% from current levels during the period, said a majority of participants in an ET poll of fund managers and brokers, but a market decline could be a good opportunity to buy some of the blue chips. ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki and Reliance Industries could be the best performers for the rest of 2014.
Out of the 21 market participants polled, 44% said the Nifty could fall to 7,050-7,220 points and the Sensex to 24,200 levels over the next few weeks if the recent weakness persists. This is about 5-7% below their Friday closing of 7,602.60 and 25,480.84. Both indices have dropped almost 3% from their July 25 all-time high.
“The current correction in the market was a much-needed one after such a sharp rally,“ said Motilal Oswal, chairman & MD, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
“The recent fall is aligning to the global market correction.“
The participants said a fall of 5-7% would be a good level at which to start buying shares of firms with sound balance sheets.
Some 35% of respondents said the Sensex could touch 27,00028,000 and 40% said it could reach 28,000-30,000 by the year-end. Concern that the US Federal Reserve may tighten its monetary policy sooner than expected has resurfaced with job data in that country showing signs of improvement.
Investors worry a stronger dollar would slow down flows into emerging markets including India, which has been a key recipient of foreign portfolio money in the past few years. To be sure, the Indian economy may also be on the cusp of a turnaround with some of the macroeconomic and industrial data pointing that way and even the monsoon picking up in the past few weeks.
The Sensex has gained almost 21% since January, led by foreign institutional in vestor (FII) inflows of Rs 71,409 crore so far this year, making it among the top performers across global markets. In 2013, these investors poured . 1.13 lakh crore into Indi ` an equities.
But this has made Indi an stock valuations pri cey. “In the near term, the market seems to be fairly valued and most sectors are trading near their long-term average valuations,“ said S Naren, chief investment officer, ICICI Prudential Asset Management.
The MSCI India Index is trading at around 16.3 times its price-earnings (PE) multiple, and its premium to other emerging markets is near a five-year high.
“Though the sentiment has improved after the new government has taken charge, there is a concern that valuations have run up ahead of the fundamentals,“ said Ritesh Jain, chief investment officer, Tata Asset Management.
“So, at least a time correction is warranted till we start seeing signs of a fullfledged economic recovery.“
Investors will shift to sectors and companies with stronger financials such as private banks, automobiles and information technology, from consumer goods, power equipment and real estate stocks, the poll said.
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
Govt's Gas Pricing Plan May Try to Keep Buyers & Sellers Happy
RAJEEV JAYASWAL
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NEW DELHI
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Formula in the works would also look to avoid conflicts with producers while not diluting govt's stand
The government wants to usher in a new gas-pricing regime that will balance conflicting interests of producers and consumers and rule out conflicts with gas producers without diluting the stand it has taken in disputes in gas-related matters.
Official sources said that the oil ministry has recently discussed merits of setting the price roughly mid-way between the existing $4.2 per unit and the rate of $8.4 calculated by the Rangarajan formula that the UPA’s Cabinet had approved, but not implemented because the Elections Commission did not allow it during the poll campaign.
The government is also keeping in mind the stand it has taken on gas-pricing issues in the dispute with Reliance Industries. The oil ministry, under UPA’s Jaipal Reddy and Veerappa Moily as well as NDA’s Dharmendra Pradhan, has consistently taken the stand that it must penalise RIL for the fall in gas production at the KG-D6 block.
RIL says output fell because of geological reasons and that its contract does not provide for such penalty.
However, since the oil ministry feels that gas production declined because the company did not drill more wells as suggested by the director general of hydrocarbons, it is not keen to let RIL charge higher rates unless the company produces the amount of gas that it was expected to produce according to the field development plan for the producing fields of the KG-D6 block.
The government is also considering specifying the gas price formula in the contract of oil and gas blocks it plans to auction with simplified revenue-sharing terms, which will avoid disputes, official sources said.
Discussions are on in several ministries such as oil, power, fertiliser and finance to resolve the vexed gas pricing issues as the Cabinet had set the deadline of September 30, government sources said.
“This is a complex issue. We are discussing all options and their pros and cons. Such issues can’t be resolved in a hurry or under pressure. We are looking for a solution that will balance interests of consumers and producers in the interest of nation. But no decision has been taken as yet,” a government source with direct knowledge of the matter said.
Options under consideration include renewing the existing formula with necessary changes to factor in infla
tion, setting up an external panel to comprehensively examine the pricing issue, including the Rangarajan formula, modifying the formula in a manner that it should be acceptable to both producers and consumers at around $6-6.8 per unit rate and allowing producer and consumers to negotiate gas prices after government fixes sectorwise gas allocation, sources said.
Officials said the existing formula, which gave the $4.2 per unit price, was proposed by the producer and approved by the empowered group of ministers with some modifications in 2007. The formula was uniformly applicable for gas produced from blocks auctioned under NELP-I to VI, and it came up for revision from April 1, 2014. ET first reported on July 2 that the government is taking a fresh look at the prevailing seven-year-old gas pricing formula to fix new rates for gas, which are likely to be lower than the $8.4 per million metric British
thermal units (mmBtu) approved by the Manmohan Singh government.
“The formula worked well for five years from the day first gas was produced in 2009 from one NELP block. The same can continue after adjusting its components to reflect current benchmark pricing. But at this price, some discoveries can't be monetised,“ the source quoted earlier said. ONGC, RIL and GSPC are demanding $6-13 per unit price to make their discoveries in deep water blocks commercially viable.
Another option is to tweak the Rangarajan formula and calculate the price without factoring in the price in Japan, which does not produce gas. Officials said that in the future, pricing can be left to the producers and consumers to negotiate, but currently the oil ministry does not think the market has developed sufficiently to allow this because the buyer is in a weak position.
The government is considering withholding applicability of new gas rates for RIL's old fields until the outcome of the arbitration proceeding, in which RIL challenged the oil ministry's decision to link cost recovery with output and deferred recovery of its $2.376 billion investments in the KG-D6 block until shortfall in gas output is met. The oil ministry will take legal view on this matter, government sources said.
“RIL and its partners have filed two arbitration proceedings on gas-related matters. The SC is also hearing a public interest litigation on this issue.
rajeev.jayaswal@timesgroup.com
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
‘Parliament Should Have a Say in Policies’
MITUL THAKKAR
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PANAJI
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Parliament & panels, not just ministries, should help frame govt policy, says Suresh Prabhu
Parliament and its committees -and not just ministries -should play the key role in formulating policies, former power minister Suresh Prabhu has said. “It may take a little longer to frame policies, but standing committees with inclusion of members of Parliament from different parties should be empowered to come up with foolproof guidelines,“ Prabhu, who heads an advisory panel for integrated development of power, coal and renewable energy , said at the Regulators and Policymakers Retreat of Independent Power Producers Association of India in Goa over the weekend.
Prabhu said debating and formulating policies in Parliament would bring transparency in the exercise and help avoid controversies, which could attract scrutiny from the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG), the CBI and the Supreme Court.
His suggestion came during a panel discussion on Saturday, after former external affairs minister Salman Khurshid said that if the government pursues policy-making for a certain sector proactively, it ends up raising suspicion of audit and investigation agencies. Khurshid recounted the 2G spectrum and coal block allocation issues where the CAG’s observations had triggered legal scrutiny.
“A policy-making statement should be made in Parliament, only then it will have the stamp of authority that no agency will raise questions over it,” the former minister said. “This will also bring transparency, clarity and stability in the policy regime.
Now, it is time for creating second
generation standing committees whose recommendations, whatever they may be, must be taken as final.“
Referring to losses in the power sector, Prabhu suggested monitoring commercial losses of distribution companies on a monthly basis, instead of annually, as it is done now. Investors, regulators and experts said the government should overhaul the power sector.
Maharashtra State Power Generating Company MD Asheesh Sharma said his company loses ` . 2,000 crore annually due to lower calorific value of coal supplied by Coal India, and that this burden is passed on to end-users. As 80% of the country's thermal capacity is located away from fuel sources, Essar Power CEO Sushil Maroo suggested that power plants be set up near pitheads to save on coal transportation costs. “In some cases, coal transportation charges alone contribute more than Re 1 to electricity tariff,“ said Maroo.
Aug 04 2014 : The Economic Times (Mumbai)
EXCLUSIVE Q&A - `India's Fundamentals are in Place for Profitable Growth'
AISHA DE SEQUEIRA CO-COUNTRY HEAD & HEAD-INVESTMENT BANKING, MORGAN STANLEY INDIA
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The best demographic profile in the world, combined with a strong leadership at the Centre, clear investment-driven sentiment and focus, will give India a strong and constructive market, says Sequeira
Foreign investors' interest in India is real as they are looking at the country from a structural perspective, said Aisha De Sequeira, co-country head and head-investment banking, Morgan Stanley India. In an interview with R Sriram and Nishanth Vasudevan, the dealmaker said she is bullish on India right now more than what has been the case for a very long time.
Edited excerpts: There is one view in the market that there are not too many buying opportunities, going forward. Another view is that valuations are still reasonable and can go up from current levels. How do you see things?
We are very excited about what is happening in India overall. From our perspective, as we take a holistic view, it is the country with the best demographic profile story in the world The median age is 26 and more people are entering the work force than any other country in the world. And, if you combine that with a strong leadership at the Centre, clear investment-driven sentiment and focus, I think you have the recipe for strong job growth which, when combined with a strong demographic profile, would lead to greater growth and savings potential over the long-term. At any point in time, the markets may go up or down. If you ask me about the India Story over the next two to five years, we have got the underpinnings of a strong and constructive market ahead of us.
Do you think the Budget is disappointing?
No, I don't think the Budget is disappointing.
Clearly, there are policy perspectives that have been articulated in the manifesto.
People need to read that in conjunction with the Budget... not everything can happen at one go. And, it is in very few places that the budget is such a big event as it is in India. We have the directional perspective from the government. It is clearly pro-development, which is what we need. I am personally bullish on India right now, more than what has been the case for a very long time. What about your clients? Are they equally bullish?
Yes. I think they are from a global perspective. If you think about the consumer sector, very few countries in the world can deliver what India has to offer. Clearly, it needs to be combined with job growth, inflation being brought under control with capital investments in infrastructure. These are all the bottlenecks for growth that the government needs to resolve. If you look at corporates in India, clearly the capex cycle over the last few years has been very weak.
People want to see the economy beginning to show improvement on the ground before the capex cycle improves significantly. But, overall sentiment is very positive right now. How much of foreign investors' interest in India is because of the TINA (there is no alternative) factor?
Very little, I think, it is a real interest in India.
Frankly, investors have a lot of options. If they don't have an interesting alternative in the emerging markets, they will go to some place in the frontier markets (which have lower market cap and liquidity than emerging markets). Or go to the developed world. These investors do not have to go to a market they do not like. So, this is a fundamental interest in India. People are looking at it from a structural perspective. We have fundamentals in place for profitable growth.
We saw the issue of GAAR popping up just after the Budget which led to a fall in the market. Is it still a live issue among your clients?
Investors want to understand the overall risk environment in which they are going to operate. Tax is a big part of that. If anything is done on a retroactive basis, I think, it definitely shakes the confidence. From that perspective, it is very important to articulate what the policy is for it to get priced in.
The law will come into force next year.
Is that good enough for you?
All of the aspects are not clear yet. The devil is always in the details. So, there is a need for full clarity.
So, could that be a reason why FII inflows have moderated after the Budget?
We should not look into inflows into India on a weekly basis or a daily basis. We have to look at it over a period of time. Are long-term investors or strategic corporate investors interested in India? The answer to that is yes.
People will also look at opportunities like fresh paper. I am not seeing any abatement of interest in India. If people expect everything to happen within two months of the elections, there is bound to be disappointment. It is important for the story to play over a period of time.
Is it true that many long-term investors, who had left India a few years ago, are still waiting on the sidelines?
Investors are clearly analysing India again.
India is back on the agenda. India has a powerful demographic profile,with a median age of 26 and 120 million people entering the work force in the next 10 years. This requires job creation and development-driven economic policy. Investment in infrastructure is something that people would like to see. It is expected that growth will take a bit of time to revive and we are on the right path. The focus is very much on execution. I have no doubt that investors would want to be part of this.
The government has an ambitious disinvestment plan ahead. Will the government be able to raise the money required? Whether it's a disinvestment or a corporate paper that comes out, it will ultimately be the individual story that will be important. There are some very strong government companies and there will be interest provided they are priced appropriately.
The government has had a lot of problems with disinvestment in the past when LIC had to bail out and shares had to be sold at a huge discount. What do you think the government should do to ensure these things do not happen again?
I do not think the government disinvestment is different from any other company that is selling its stock. It is important to have a consistent IR policy where investors are talked to regularly about the opportunities that exist to make them comfortable about the company by the time it hits the market.
From a pricing perspective, it is important to ensure that investors are attracted and some liquidity is also created.
There is a concern that there is limited supply of paper (stocks) from India. What are your thoughts?
I do not think it's a surprise given that the market is in a bullish phase. If you have a low capex cycle, a lot of the equity capital that has been raised in India has been used to fund growth capital. In order to have growth capital, you need investments. So, it will be with renewed sentiment that people will feel confident to restart some of these large capex plans. There is always going to be a lag.
The Fed's QE (Quantitative Easing) programme is set to end this year. Wall Street is talking about interest rate hikes next year. Will it impact flows into emerging markets including India?
If you look at what has happened in India in the first half of the year, a lot of capital came into India. If you look at the capital that comes into India as a percentage of overall capital flows, it's really small. If the QE aspect coincides with earnings growth, clearly investors will continue to look at India.
It is clear that in most frontline companies, FII limit is hitting the ceiling and this is going to be a bigger problem as the FII money continues to flow. Is that a concern for foreign investors that they cannot buy more of stocks like HDFC Bank?
FIIs tend to go to the larger corporates and if the limits in a number of these companies have been reached, that will mean that FIIs will have to play with a smaller set.
Disinvesment could create large opportunities for investment. There are also emerging growth companies, like Just Dial that we took public last year, that play the India consumer growth story which FIIs are very interested in. We are also anticipating a pick-up in IPO activity.
How much of the geopolitical issue will play on the sentiment in emerging markets?
I think the geopolitical issues are an important consideration. We are a big net importer of oil. So, when there are geopolitical tensions, it obviously impacts oil and potentially leads to inflation.
Stability and security are also very important factors too.
When do you see the start of the next capex cycle?
My sense is that you will get to see that over the next 18 months.
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